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| Can the Kings build a contender around Rudy Gay? |
It’s unclear exactly how much we are learning through the first few weeks of the NBA season, but the frontrunner for surprise team that exceeds expectations looks to be the Sacramento Kings. Sac-town stands at 6-4 in a brutal Western Conference, with impressive wins against the Clippers, Blazers, Suns, and Spurs.
The Grizzlies loss occurred on a buzzer-beating layup by Courtney Lee, but by looking at the trajectory of the ball it appears Ryan Hollins tipped Vince Carter’s inbound pass, meaning the clock should have started earlier and, therefore, the layup wouldn’t count. The league is currently reviewing the play, although I would be surprised if the call was reversed.
Still, they’re basically 7-3 and have beaten some really good basketball teams.
Rudy Gay deserves a fair share of the credit for this productive stretch, and Sacramento rewarded him accordingly with a three year, $40 million extension this weekend. In ten games this season, Rudy is posting career-high numbers in points (22.5 PPG), rebounds (5.4), and assists (3.5). His turnover rate is down to 12%, the lowest it’s been since Gay played in a conservative Memphis offense where he wasn’t really the feature guy. His splits of .448/.344/.880 are encouraging as he has evolved into both an efficient scorer and a playmaker.
If Gay continues to play at this level, that deal looks decidedly team-friendly, especially with the new TV deal set to elevate the cap a notch. As an aside, extensions in general seem to be becoming more relevant with the uncertainty of the cap, as Anderson Varejao signed on for another three years with the Cavs just a few weeks ago. But paying an AAV of $13.3M for Rudy Gay in the midst of a potential breakout year?
Didn’t Alec Burks just get four years, $42 million?
After a 28-54 record last season, the Kings look much improved thanks to two legitimate building blocks in Gay and DeMarcus Cousins.
Boogie has been a monster this season. His scoring numbers are pretty consistent with last year, but the real story is his improved focus on the defensive end. Although he’s not a rim protector and still fouls too much, he’s averaging the highest block rate of his career and has done a better job defending the pick-and-roll and patrolling the paint. Cousins is a big reason why the Kings rank in the middle of the pack defensively with a rating of 102.8, a significant improvement from last season’s mark of 106.3.
Perhaps the most notable part of Boogie’s latest transformation is his level of maturity. It looks like both Gay and Cousins learned a lot in their experiences with Team USA this summer, but for Boogie, leading by example was a definite takeaway. DeMarcus led the NBA in techs last season with 16, and has developed quite the reputation between his ejections and general antics.
This year the guy held back his coach from getting a technical after a controversial foul call in a double overtime victory against the Suns.
Boogie Cousins the mediator!
(Oh right, he also almost socked Jonas Valanciunas for a high elbow in the championship game of said FIBA tournament. But he’s getting there!)
In addition, Boogie is fourth in the Association in PER, and ranks second in usage rate behind only Kobe Bryant on a dreadful Lakers team. His total rebounding percentage ranks best in the league at 21.6% (Technically Cousins is tied with Tyson Chandler, but one could argue a Boogie rebound is more valuable because it typically results in a put-back dunk or some other high percentage shot as opposed to a tip-back by Chandler that resets the possession).
The real success behind the Kings offense, which still remains somewhat stagnant and suffers from cramped spacing, has been their success at getting to the line. Boogie and Gay combine to average 15.8 free throws attempts per game, more than any other duo in the NBA except for James Harden and Dwight Howard (20.2). Rudy has developed into quite the finisher at the rim, and is averaging a career-best 7.5 attempts per game at the line. He improved to 69.4% from the restricted area this season (up from 61.1% last year).
Although initially met with criticism (myself included), the replacement of Isaiah Thomas with Darren Collision appears to have worked well. The Kings still rank last in the NBA in assists with just 13.8 per game, down slightly from last season. Although they are actually averaging about 25 more passes per game according to SportVU data, their assist opportunities per game have actually decreased since last season.
So, in other words, it’s difficult to blame The Pizza Guy for the lack of ball movement as Cousins implied this offseason.
So far this season, Collison has matched Isaiah’s offensive rating of 114 from last season. However, IT’s lack of size hurt Sac-town on the defensive end, especially going up against so many good point guards in the West, thus resulting in a 111 defensive rating. Not quite Byron Scott’s Lakers, but pretty bad. Collison has posted a 105 defensive rating so far this season. He’s not an All-Defensive Team type of player, but he’s quick enough to keep his guy in front of him and gets back on transition.
Despite a nice midrange game (45.9% this season), Collison has been woeful from distance. He’s made just five of his 25 three-point attempts this season, connecting on just 22.2% of his threes above the break.
Outside of Gay, only Ben McLemore (40.5% so far) has proven to be capable from distance. It’s early, but Nik Stauskas hasn’t found his shooting stroke quite yet and has connected on just six of his 24 attempts from deep. The Kings rank 29th in the Association in three point percentage, connecting on just 29.8% of triples, and are only hoisting 15.1 threes a game. Their lack of production from the corners (31.4% on 35 attempts) is particularly concerning. At the same time, this team is a few capable shooters away from being a top-ten offense in the league.
Ever since the new regime of owner Vivek Ranadive and GM Pete D’Alessandro took over, Sacramento’s rationale has remained clear. The team doesn’t consider itself a glamorous free agent attraction – at least not yet. So, in order to acquire top-level talent, the Kings need to be willing to take risks on undesirable contracts. After all, that’s how Sac-town landed Gay in the first place, when they grabbed him from Toronto in what has become a fascinating “who wins?” discussion.
It’s possible the team could utilize this same strategy at the trade deadline, or perhaps well before. Rudy was traded in early December last season.
The Josh Smith talks are likely to reemerge given the early struggles of Detroit, and Sacramento could use a power forward upgrade over the incumbent Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, Reggie Evans, and Derrick Williams. Although the initial thought of acquiring Smith is probably unpleasant, flipping Thompson and Williams for him could give this team another Rudy Gay type of upside player.
As the current starter, Thompson has made just 34.1% of his shots this season and rarely draws contact to get to the free throw line any more. Landry is providing a nice bench spark after missing too much time last season to make much of an impact, but his defense isn’t good enough to play in crunch time. Williams has fallen out of the rotation, and Evans cleans the glass but can’t really do much else.
I could also see the Kings making a move with the Nuggets. Denver looks all over the place out of the gate, and I’d say ten teams or so could really use one of their role players for a playoff run. If they decide to sell by the deadline, guys like Danillo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo and Timofey Mozgov might be up for grabs. Gallinari and Afflalo in particular could be good fits in Sacramento.
If the Kings score Smith, look for them to at least float the possibility of acquiring his high school teammate Rajon Rondo. He’s not going to help their three-point issues, but as Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland pointed out earlier this week, Rondo’s reputation as a non-shooter is overstated. Plus, the guy practically averages more assists per game (12.0) than the entire Kings team this season (13.8). But with Collison proving that he’s capable of being the lead man, and considering the high quality of point guards in the NBA, the four represents a bigger need.
I’m still not sure this is a playoff team, but the Kings are firmly in the conversation. We still don’t know if the Thunder will make the playoffs, and recent close losses to the Grizzlies, Pistons, and Rockets certainly aren’t helping OKC’s chances. But if Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook don’t return in time, Sacramento could be poised to take their spot.
While other teams like Phoenix and New Orleans have played their way into the conversation, I think the Kings are more likely to make a whacky deadline trade that propels them into the playoffs than any other fringe Western playoff team. The Pellies are bare of trade assets after exchanging first round picks for Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik, and the Suns appear content with their backcourt-heavy lineup for now.
Meanwhile, Sacramento seems willing to accept players with borderline-albatross contracts. Even the top of the West looks murky, so it’s conceivable that the Kings could sneak into the playoffs and score a favorable first round matchup, giving a contender some early trouble.
Maybe this is the breakout season for Sacramento, and the Gay-Cousins combination becomes a playoff fixture for years to come.
Maybe this team collapses amidst the early season high praise and wins 35 games.
No matter what happens, this team is fun, and has the potential to be fun for a long time with Gay under contract long-term.
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